By Digi Team It’s a fear that surfaces in the heart of Kerala with every heavy monsoon. As the Periyar river swells and the rain lashes down, a haunting question echoes through social media and concerned conversations: Will kerala sinks if mullaperiyar dam blasts? The idea is terrifying, conjuring images of a biblical flood swallowing a whole state. But is it reality or hyperbole? The truth is a bit more complex, and frankly, far more specific and frightening than a vague notion of “sinking.”
Key Takeaways
- No, the entire state of Kerala will not literally “sink” into the ocean. The term is a metaphor for a catastrophic flood.
- A failure of the Mullaperiyar dam would cause devastating and unprecedented flooding in several central districts of Kerala.
- The primary and most terrifying risk is the “cascade effect”—the wall of water from Mullaperiyar hitting and potentially breaking the much larger Idukki dam downstream.
- Millions of lives, along with critical infrastructure in districts like Idukki, Ernakulam (including Kochi), Kottayam, and Alappuzha, are in the direct path of potential floodwaters.
- The debate is rooted in the dam’s advanced age, its location in a seismic zone, and a century-old political agreement between two states.
Understanding the Mullaperiyar Dam: A Quick Primer
To grasp the risk, you first need to understand the dam itself. It’s not just any concrete structure; it’s a relic of a different era with a uniquely complicated backstory.
1A Century-Old Structure
The Mullaperiyar dam was completed in 1895. Think about that. It was built before modern engineering principles, seismic studies, and computer modeling existed. It’s a gravity dam constructed with limestone and “surkhi,” a traditional mix of burnt brick powder, sand, and lime.
While many old structures are marvels, a 126-year-old water bomb sitting in a seismically active zone raises serious questions. Modern dams are built to different standards for a reason.
2The Controversial Lease
Here’s where it gets complicated. The dam is located in Kerala, but it is operated and maintained by the government of Tamil Nadu. This is due to a 999-year lease agreement signed in 1886 between the then-Maharaja of Travancore and the British Secretary of State for India.
This agreement means one state controls a dam that poses a direct threat to millions of people in another state. It’s a political knot that has tangled up every attempt at a permanent solution.
3Location is Everything
The dam is perched high in the Western Ghats, a mountain range known for its intense rainfall and seismic activity. It sits upstream from some of Kerala’s most densely populated areas, turning the Periyar river into a potential conduit for disaster.
The “Sinking” Myth vs. The Flooding Reality
So, let’s tackle the main question head-on. Will Kerala “sink”? No. A state with diverse geography, including highlands and coastal plains, cannot literally sink. The phrase is a powerful expression of the scale of the potential disaster.
The real threat is an inland tsunami. A Dam Break Analysis (DBA) paints a grim picture. A sudden, catastrophic failure would unleash the entire reservoir’s contents—billions of cubic feet of water—in a very short time.
Imagine a wall of water, several stories high, crashing down the narrow Periyar river valley. It would obliterate everything in its path for miles. Towns like Vandiperiyar, Upputhara, and others in the immediate downstream area would be gone in minutes. The speed and force would be unimaginable.
The Cascade Effect: The Real Nightmare Scenario
The danger from Mullaperiyar alone is immense, but it’s only the first step in the nightmare scenario. The real fear is the domino effect.
1The Idukki Dam’s Role
Just 26 kilometers downstream from Mullaperiyar sits the Idukki Dam. This is a modern engineering marvel—a massive double curvature arch dam, one of the largest in Asia. It holds a significantly larger volume of water than Mullaperiyar.
2Can Idukki Withstand the Impact?
This is the billion-dollar question. If the Idukki dam is already near its full capacity, as it often is during the monsoon, the sudden influx of a massive volume of water could be too much. The wave could overtop the dam or, in a worst-case scenario, cause a structural failure.
Engineers have debated this for years. Some argue Idukki is strong enough to withstand it. Others warn that no dam is designed to handle such a sudden, violent impact from an upstream failure. The risk is simply too great to gamble on.
3A Domino Disaster
If Idukki were to fail, the scale of the catastrophe would be beyond anything India has ever seen. The combined volume of water from both reservoirs would surge downstream, inundating vast areas of Idukki, Ernakulam, Kottayam, Alappuzha, and Thrissur districts.
The water would swamp Kochi, a major metropolitan city, its international airport, the naval base, and countless towns and villages. The human and economic toll would be staggering. This cascade failure is the “sinking” that people truly fear.
Is a Failure Likely? The Ongoing Debate
This isn’t just about a hypothetical disaster. There are real, tangible reasons for concern.
Tamil Nadu’s government insists the dam is safe, pointing to strengthening measures they’ve undertaken over the years. They rely on its water to irrigate five of their southern districts, making it a lifeline for their farmers.
However, Kerala and many independent experts point to persistent leaks, tremors in the region, and the dam’s ancient construction material as evidence of its vulnerability. They argue that no amount of strengthening can make a 126-year-old dam built with outdated technology truly safe, especially in a changing climate that brings more extreme rainfall events.
The core of Kerala’s demand is to build a new, modern dam and decommission the old one. This proposal has been stuck in a political and legal quagmire for decades.
Conclusion
So, will Kerala sink if the Mullaperiyar dam blasts? No, not literally. But the reality is far more terrifying. A dam failure would trigger a cataclysmic flood, a disaster amplified to unimaginable proportions if it leads to the failure of the Idukki dam. Millions of lives hang in the balance.
The issue is more than just an engineering problem; it’s a human one. The debate between safety and water rights has dragged on for too long. For the millions living downstream, every monsoon is a reminder that they are living on borrowed time, hoping the old dam holds for one more year. The question isn’t just *if* it will happen, but what is being done to ensure it *never* does.
Frequently Asked Questions
Question: Why can’t Kerala just build a new dam?
Answer: Kerala wants to, but the dam is operated by Tamil Nadu under a long-term lease, and they have not agreed to the proposal, leading to a legal and political stalemate.
Question: How many people would be affected by a Mullaperiyar dam break?
Answer: Estimates suggest a dam break could directly and indirectly affect between 3 to 5 million people across several central Kerala districts.
Question: Is the dam located in an earthquake zone?
Answer: Yes, the Mullaperiyar dam is situated in a seismically active area, which is a major factor in the safety concerns.
Question: What is the “cascade effect”?
Answer: It’s the scenario where the failure of Mullaperiyar dam releases a wall of water that overwhelms and causes the failure of the larger Idukki dam downstream.
Question: Has the dam ever been close to failing?
Answer: There have been several instances of alarm, especially during extreme monsoon events, where the water level has risen to dangerous heights, causing widespread panic.